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Consumer Confidence Dips
The latest data out of the UK today painted a very mixed picture. Firstly, the GfK consumer confidence reading was seen printing -30, down from -24 previously and worse than the -25 the market was looking for. This marks the first fresh decline in UK consumer confidence in 6 months and comes amidst growing uncertainty over near-term BOE action.
Retail Sales Rise in June
On a more positive note, retail sales were seen rising last month, printing 0.7%, up from 0.1% prior and above the 0.2% the market was looking for. Risk of recession in the UK is still a major headwind to investor sentiment and this latest batch of retail data will provide reassurance in the near-term.
Shifting BOE Expectations
GBP has been under heavy selling pressure over the last few days following the latest UK CPI data which showed inflation fell firmly last month. With headline CPI now back under 8%, traders are beginning to question how much more action the BOE is likely to take this year. With rate hike bets being scaled back, GBP looks likely to continue lower near-term.
Technical Views
GBPUSD
The correction in the market over the last week and seen price reversing sharply, now trading back under the 1.2992 level. Price is now fast approaching a test of the bullish trend line, which stands as the first support ahead of 1.2659. Bulls will need to defend this area to maintain the medium-term bullish view. Below, there, focus shifts to 1.2437 next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.